There appears to be a political cognetive dissonance between what they are claiming to want to accomplish and the budgets required to achieve them.
If all transport and heating go electric, the national grid would need to be at least doubled and maybe as much as quadrupled.
The loud chorus of alarmists keep on insisting that we can move to a renewable energy powered future – I’m guessing these people are stymied by any mathematics that extends beyond counting on their fingers – otherwise they would realize this is impossible.
As an engineer, the basic math's tells me why this is quite simply impossible when you actually consider the magnitude of the problem vis :-
1.) A barrel if oil is approximately 1.7MWh energy equivalent –
Ref: Barrel of oil equivalent - Wikipedia
2.) The world consumes 100 million barrels of oil per day or times 365 days for barrels of oil a year. Ref: List of countries by oil consumption - Wikipedia
3.) Therefore the world consumes 100,000,000 x 365 x 1.7 MWh of energy equivalent from oil.
4.) The world currently generates 25,000 x 1,000,000 MWh of electricity per year.
Ref: Electricity facts
5.) Approximately 92% of crude oil production is used for energy (fuels etc.) and 8% other products (plastics, chemicals etc.)
6.) Therefore we can divide 3.) by 4.) to find how much additional energy we need relative to what we currently generate – less the 8% non-fuels use.
100,000,000 x 365 x 1.7 x 0.92 MWh
———————————
25,000,000,000 MWh
Cancel out the zeros and we get the ratio.
570÷250=2.28
But 80% of the 250 is generated by fossil fuels (so that’s double accounting) so we get 250x80%= 200 which we can subtract from the 570 giving us :-
370÷250 = 1.48
But that’s just for crude oil – allowing for natural gas and coal as well (without going into the calculations – see following graphic) that comes to a further 138 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which adds a further 570 x (138 ÷ 100) = 786.6 MWh equivalent.
(We have already discounted the fossil fuels used for electricity generation as oil equivalent – so this figure needs no further adjustment)
This then brings our ratio up to :-
(786.6+370) ÷ 250 = 4.62
±4.6 times what we currently generate 460% extra electrical generation – by weather dependent energy (renewables) ?
So we need an increase of 4.62 times what we currently generate plus what we currently generate to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, assuming of course 100% efficiency everywhere.
Electric cars are overall – more efficient measured from source to output but heating via electrically generated power is far less efficient than direct heating – comparing fossil fuels to renewables. So for a quick and dirty approximation, efficiency can be ignored.
Do you really believe that we can grow our existing electrical generation and supply infrastructure by an additional 462% via “renewables” when it has taken 30 years of massive subsidies and monumentally wasteful expenditure to get renewables up to just 1% of world energy supply ? And that was whilst using fossil fuels to provide the colossal amount of energy needed to manufacture the renewable generators (mining, processing, fabrication and construction etc. etc.)
And the Greens want us to accomplish this whilst simultaneously eliminating nuclear and hydro by 2050 !
In 2019 nuclear in the USA was only 9% of installed “nameplate” generating capacity – yet provided 20% of all USA’s electricity – clearly the most efficient.
Battery storage is quite another matter. Consider Tesla, the world’s best-known battery maker: $200,000 worth of Tesla batteries, which collectively weigh over 20,000 pounds, are needed to store the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil. A barrel of oil, meanwhile, weighs 300 pounds and can be stored in a $20 tank (which can be refilled also). Those are the realities of today’s lithium batteries. Even a 200% improvement in underlying battery economics and technology won’t close such a gap.
Batteries are costly, it would take approximately 4000 completely free recharges of that battery to finally equal the energy you can buy for the price of a single barrel of oil. So if you used that battery for 11 years, draining and completely filling (again – filling for free), every single day, you’d finally break even. It is unlikely with that much use, that a Tesla battery will last more than 6-8 years.
A 500kg battery requires the mining of 500000kg of earth – its ecological footprint is huge, uneconomical and completely ignored.
Put another way a battery that could store the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil, requires 100 barrels of oil to construct the battery. Now even if it was charged from renewable (weather dependent) energy it will never repay its debt to the ecology. Since currently weather dependent energy is only providing 1% of total world energy demand – then it is obvious that batteries are a colossal waste of scarce resources.
The Dirty Secrets of “Clean” Electric Vehicles
Beleive it or not I'm all for an all electric future - but there are serious problems that cannot just be wished away - but politicos are pledging our future in the belief that these problems can be solved by political diktat - colour me skeptical,
Regards, Ken
If all transport and heating go electric, the national grid would need to be at least doubled and maybe as much as quadrupled.
The loud chorus of alarmists keep on insisting that we can move to a renewable energy powered future – I’m guessing these people are stymied by any mathematics that extends beyond counting on their fingers – otherwise they would realize this is impossible.
As an engineer, the basic math's tells me why this is quite simply impossible when you actually consider the magnitude of the problem vis :-
1.) A barrel if oil is approximately 1.7MWh energy equivalent –
Ref: Barrel of oil equivalent - Wikipedia
2.) The world consumes 100 million barrels of oil per day or times 365 days for barrels of oil a year. Ref: List of countries by oil consumption - Wikipedia
3.) Therefore the world consumes 100,000,000 x 365 x 1.7 MWh of energy equivalent from oil.
4.) The world currently generates 25,000 x 1,000,000 MWh of electricity per year.
Ref: Electricity facts
5.) Approximately 92% of crude oil production is used for energy (fuels etc.) and 8% other products (plastics, chemicals etc.)
6.) Therefore we can divide 3.) by 4.) to find how much additional energy we need relative to what we currently generate – less the 8% non-fuels use.
100,000,000 x 365 x 1.7 x 0.92 MWh
———————————
25,000,000,000 MWh
Cancel out the zeros and we get the ratio.
570÷250=2.28
But 80% of the 250 is generated by fossil fuels (so that’s double accounting) so we get 250x80%= 200 which we can subtract from the 570 giving us :-
370÷250 = 1.48
But that’s just for crude oil – allowing for natural gas and coal as well (without going into the calculations – see following graphic) that comes to a further 138 million barrels of oil equivalent per day which adds a further 570 x (138 ÷ 100) = 786.6 MWh equivalent.
(We have already discounted the fossil fuels used for electricity generation as oil equivalent – so this figure needs no further adjustment)
This then brings our ratio up to :-
(786.6+370) ÷ 250 = 4.62
±4.6 times what we currently generate 460% extra electrical generation – by weather dependent energy (renewables) ?
So we need an increase of 4.62 times what we currently generate plus what we currently generate to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, assuming of course 100% efficiency everywhere.
Electric cars are overall – more efficient measured from source to output but heating via electrically generated power is far less efficient than direct heating – comparing fossil fuels to renewables. So for a quick and dirty approximation, efficiency can be ignored.
Do you really believe that we can grow our existing electrical generation and supply infrastructure by an additional 462% via “renewables” when it has taken 30 years of massive subsidies and monumentally wasteful expenditure to get renewables up to just 1% of world energy supply ? And that was whilst using fossil fuels to provide the colossal amount of energy needed to manufacture the renewable generators (mining, processing, fabrication and construction etc. etc.)
And the Greens want us to accomplish this whilst simultaneously eliminating nuclear and hydro by 2050 !
In 2019 nuclear in the USA was only 9% of installed “nameplate” generating capacity – yet provided 20% of all USA’s electricity – clearly the most efficient.
Battery storage is quite another matter. Consider Tesla, the world’s best-known battery maker: $200,000 worth of Tesla batteries, which collectively weigh over 20,000 pounds, are needed to store the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil. A barrel of oil, meanwhile, weighs 300 pounds and can be stored in a $20 tank (which can be refilled also). Those are the realities of today’s lithium batteries. Even a 200% improvement in underlying battery economics and technology won’t close such a gap.
Batteries are costly, it would take approximately 4000 completely free recharges of that battery to finally equal the energy you can buy for the price of a single barrel of oil. So if you used that battery for 11 years, draining and completely filling (again – filling for free), every single day, you’d finally break even. It is unlikely with that much use, that a Tesla battery will last more than 6-8 years.
A 500kg battery requires the mining of 500000kg of earth – its ecological footprint is huge, uneconomical and completely ignored.
Put another way a battery that could store the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil, requires 100 barrels of oil to construct the battery. Now even if it was charged from renewable (weather dependent) energy it will never repay its debt to the ecology. Since currently weather dependent energy is only providing 1% of total world energy demand – then it is obvious that batteries are a colossal waste of scarce resources.
The Dirty Secrets of “Clean” Electric Vehicles
Beleive it or not I'm all for an all electric future - but there are serious problems that cannot just be wished away - but politicos are pledging our future in the belief that these problems can be solved by political diktat - colour me skeptical,
Regards, Ken