Jennifer Edwards
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2018
- Messages
- 215
- Reaction score
- 90
Thanks for the link, that book does show thd detailed construction of a csrtisgd much like the one that was taken... thanks
BTW, I was lucky enough to retire at 56 from a career as a manufacturing systems architect. I’m now 63 and have loved every minute of my early reprieve from the rat race.
Jennifer
There is no such thing as luck. You worked hard for what you have and you deserve all the enjoyment possible. I enjoy your build and conversations even if I do not reply.
Enjoy your life.
Nelson
If you were to correctly pick 3 lots of a 1/60 chance (for instance a 3 number lottery draw where the numbers are replaced), then that would be a very unlikely event (1 in 216,000). However, in this case you won once, which had a probability of *almost* 1 (it was virtually guaranteed to happen at some point as you play every week you say). From there, the probability of you winning the next week would be 1/60 which isn't hugely unlikely. Next, the probability of you winning a third time, given that you'd won twice already, was again 1/60. When we put these probabilities all together, the probability that you won three weeks in a row (regardless of the number you picked, assuming the game is fair with no bias) is 1 x 1/60 x 1/60 which comes out at 1 in 3600. This is a reasonably unlikely outcome but not phenomenally so, and far more likely than winning any 'normal' lottery or even reasonably large raffle just once. Even the 1 in 216,000 chance is more than an order of magnitude less than the probability of winning a lottery draw one time.I'm a fairly decent mathematician and claim to understand the Theory of Probability but like the rest of my associates last Sunday confounded us all when I won three times in 3 successive weeks using the same number .
I guess it depends on your definition of 'probably' but you'd have better than a 50% chance of winning again after 30 weeks. Being that you're discussing probability theory then I think 'a year or so' would be a bit more than "probably".There were 60 chances all at £1 coin and therefore if I won once, I would probably win again after a year or so.
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