# Earth quake in Japan!



## Metal Butcher (Mar 11, 2011)

Another earthquake hits our planet, this time in Japan! It looks like it was a real bad one. A Tsunami is expected to hit the Hawaiian Islands, and the California shore line.

Quoting, Thomas H. Maugh II, Los Angeles Times : "But that wave is now spreading out in the opposite direction at about 500 mph, the speed of a jet airplane. It should hit Hawaii just before 3 a.m. local time and should begin reaching the West Coast around 8 a.m. PST."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2011/03/11/VI2011031100606.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-japan-earthquake-20110310,0,7154967.story

Here's a graphic video. Watching it made me feel ill. My heart goes out to the people affected by the death and destruction caused by this quake.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWmjRG3m6Dw[/ame]

-MB


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## bearcar1 (Mar 11, 2011)

I just did read about that disaster and am stunned. That wave will also be headed towards our friends in Oz and I do hope that it has dissipated enough by that time to not cause any real harm. I was reading an article recently on the topic of the moon about it apparently being at its perigee (orbit point closest to the Earth) on 19 March and will also be in a full state. The distance at that time will be just under 225 thousand miles. It was speculated that this closeness may trigger some seismic events but there was no scientific proof to back up that statement. Perhaps now there is. My prayers go out to those that have been involved in this occurrence and anyone else that may still be in harms way until the threat has passed. 


BC1
Jim


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## BillC (Mar 11, 2011)

The earth is changing.....toward who knows what. Read about the New Madrid Fault Line - in upper Arkansas. This is getting closer to home. FEMA ia actually preparing right now for this one that they claim is imminent. Scary stuff!

BillC


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## Metal Butcher (Mar 11, 2011)

BillC  said:
			
		

> The earth is changing.....toward who knows what. Read about the New Madrid Fault Line - in upper Arkansas. This is getting closer to home. FEMA ia actually preparing right now for this one that they claim is imminent. Scary stuff!
> 
> BillC



I'm waiting on an event with the New Madrid fault. My feeling is that It's going to happen real soon. And its too close to home (Ohio) for comfort!

-MB


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## xo18thfa (Mar 11, 2011)

My wife is from Japan originally, so we get the NHK here on cable. What they are reporting is incredible. Landslides in Niigata, northern Japan. A 6.6 just hit Nagano in central Japan. The Gov't has issued tsunami warnings for all coastlines. They are also warning that this is not over, bigger quakes possible. The US Air Force flew in some repair parts and coolant as they start to shut down nuclear power plants. Now the Japanese geology officials say they can't get good seismic readings around Sendai, looks like the grid got damaged too. This is a big event.


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## bearcar1 (Mar 11, 2011)

You are correct there MB, it happened once before around the earler part of the 1800's. It actually changed the course flow of the Mississippi River. We here in the Midwest tend to overlook these tremendous forces locked deep inside the Earth's crust and have a tendency to become too complacent, thinking that such things only occur in far away coastal regions, California or Alaska, or other parts of the world, when the fact of the matter is, we are sitting on a ticking time bomb. I just read that Japan suffered a second quake of 6.6 magnitude. What the heck is going on? Perhaps that article about the moon being quite close isn't such a fairy tale after all. I think it's time to gas up the truck, pack up the dogs and head to the country, oh yeah, I better not forget old what's her name :big:


BC1
Jim


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## rake60 (Mar 11, 2011)

Our creeks, streams and rivers flood occasionally.
Here, higher ground is usually within walking distance and you have plenty of time to walk to a safe place.

I just can't imagine the sea rising up to 10 meters.

Our thoughts are with all of those affected.

Rick


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## Metal Butcher (Mar 11, 2011)

bearcar1  said:
			
		

> You are correct there MB, it happened once before around the later part of the 1800's. It actually changed the course flow of the Mississippi River. We here in the Midwest tend to overlook these tremendous forces locked deep inside the Earth's crust and have a tendency to become too complacent, thinking that such things only occur in far away coastal regions, California or Alaska, or other parts of the world, when the fact of the matter is, we are sitting on a ticking time bomb. I just read that Japan suffered a second quake of 6.6 magnitude. What the heck is going on? Perhaps that article about the moon being quite close isn't such a fairy tale after all. I think it's time to gas up the truck, pack up the dogs and head to the country, oh yeah, I better not forget old what's her name :big:
> BC1
> Jim



BC, 1811 was the year I believe. It been 200 years, and theirs be a lot of activity and phenomenons lately. Birds dropping dead out of the sky is a good indication of whats ahead. The moon's upcoming close proximity may not have an immediate noticed effect, but the fault will shift sooner than later. 

Many are trying to play down the effect that the moon has on the tectonic plates of the earth, but look at the effect it has on the water levels of the oceans!

-MB


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## bentprop (Mar 11, 2011)

This quake is far worse than the one we suffered here,and that was bad enough.There was a fellow on tv here who was saying there would be another ,bigger quake around the 20th of March.Something to do with the phase of the moon.I hope to god he's wrong,as people are still jumpy from the constant aftershocks we're getting.The death toll in Christchurch is at 166,and hopefully that's where it stays.
Japan,being so much more densely populated,has suffered a huge blow,and our thoughts are with the people who are in peril.We have some idea how they're feeling,and I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.


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## Bernd (Mar 11, 2011)

Two quakes on the Ring of Fire. Who's next on the ring?

I can't believe the devastation. Incrdible what nature can do. Never even heard of 8.9 quake before.

Bernd


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## Tin Falcon (Mar 12, 2011)

For those of you of faith PRAY. Some would say the end of the world is near. Lets not debate that here . But for many Japanese folks the end of there life . and survivors the end of there homes , businesses etc. USGS is showing 32 quakes in the are ranging form m5 -m6.8 that was in the lat 12 hours or so . It is not over yet for these folks. 
I can not comprehend a disaster of this magnitude. But I can and will pray.Many of the worlds disaster relief agency are on there way. 
Tin


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## BillC (Mar 12, 2011)

The moon is playing a massive part but the primary reason for the earth being wracked right now is the sun. There have been massive magnetic surges from the sun that are reaching all the way to the earth. The effect is slow and delayed but is expected to be massive, but at this point scientists are in the 'watch and learn' mode since this is such a rare occurrence. The sun has been doing some strange things for the last few years with massive activity in some areas and areas of total lack of activity - massive black spots. The magnetic fields are affected - which is affecting the earth. The most activity was on March 4th, so the delay time and extent of the effects is the mystery - now things are beginning to happen but to what extent? 

One theory is that the earth will shift poles. That has happened before but before man appeared on earth to 'watch'... That's the old hound dog shaking off the fleas!

BillC


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## Tin Falcon (Mar 12, 2011)

243 earthquakes within the last week 
yellow last week
blue last day
red last hour








Picture worth a thousand words
map from http://earthquake.usgs.gov
Tin


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## BillC (Mar 12, 2011)

Sometimes I kind-of pick at the Japanese because of WWII and my dad was shot in the leg by a Japanese sniper in New Guinea. Old wounds never heal....but I must say that the Japanese are a very respectable people because there have been no reports of looting in Japan since this disaster. Would that be the case in the US? 

BillC


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## Maryak (Mar 12, 2011)

My grandfather fought the Germans in WWI, my dad fought the Japanese in Burma during WWII. I was in Vietnam. The sins of the fathers are not the sins of the sons or daughters. For better or worse we are all on this planet together and the terrible natural disasters which have inflicted the Asia Pacific region over the last few months are a lesson in just how puny our species is.

How we have rallied to help each other in this time of need, without regard for national borders has been an inspiration.

Best Regards
Bob


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## imagineering (Mar 13, 2011)

Tin Falcon  said:
			
		

> For those of you of faith PRAY. Some would say the end of the world is near. Lets not debate that here . But for many Japanese folks the end of there life . and survivors the end of there homes , businesses etc. USGS is showing 32 quakes in the are ranging form m5 -m6.8 that was in the lat 12 hours or so . It is not over yet for these folks.
> I can not comprehend a disaster of this magnitude. But I can and will pray.Many of the worlds disaster relief agency are on there way.
> Tin



I feel that I must take you to task over your "praying".
There is a grievous error in your Logic/Belief System.
According to your Belief System, there is an alleged omnipotent being who created everything, knows everything and controls everything.
Why then, would this 'alleged being' create Tectonic Plate Movement and the subsequent death & destruction which follows such Movement?
Now you are using this Forum to exhort Fellow members of this Forum to "PRAY" to this alleged being ???

My contention, and that of science and many other intelligent minds, is that your god, to whom you pray, does not exist.

I am not a moderator of any of these Fora - just a Member interested in Model Machinery, and have joined with that interest in mind. I am not interested in the unsubstantiated religious delusions of other members and strenuously object to anyone *telling* me to "PRAY".


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## tel (Mar 13, 2011)

Now that's so close to the border of offensive that it ain't funny - Tin did not 'tell' you to pray, what he said was .... _*For those of you of faith PRAY.*_[size=10pt][/size], and I can find nothing wrong with that comment, especially in the context of the current situation.


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## JorgensenSteam (Mar 13, 2011)

imagineering-

The service that the Owner of this site provides is invaluable to the modeling community. It is generally considered good forum decorum to refrain from taking such a wonderful and free site "to task".

I feel your comment is unwarranted under these particular circumstances and on this free forum, and I would hope you would cut these guys a little slack, given all the good things they have done, and regardless of whether you agree or disagree with their particular belief system.

Let it go. Life is too short to spend on such things.
Enjoy life, enjoy the hobby, enjoy this free forum and its wonderful projects.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

Pat J


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## imagineering (Mar 13, 2011)

If I offend anyone, I apologise.
I maintain however - that this is a Forum for Model Engineering, not religion.


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## Cedge (Mar 13, 2011)

I'm not what one would call a religious man, but I DO find your comments highly offensive. If the mere mention of someone else indulging in their faith and exercising a freedom bothers you to such an extent, perhaps you should learn how to ignore rather than attack. If you feel that suggested option steps on your toes.... relocating those toes is also an option.

Steve


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## Maryak (Mar 13, 2011)

Imagineering

I am an Atheist

Western societies laws have their basis in religious texts

Freedom of Speech which has been exercised.

Freedom of Belief which has been misinterpreted.

IMHO your remarks were offensive and my freedom of speech needed to be exercised as much as yours.

Thank you for your apology

Bob


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## steamer (Mar 13, 2011)

We'll I am a man of faith.  That amount is my business. I don't usually try to mix it in with other subjects, However, I feel the comments by Tin and others to be *COMPLETELY relevant *  to this forum and it's members.  I don't know if you remember any of the other natural disasters that have plagued this world over the last couple of years, but I do.  This Forum was there in spirit at the very least for all our members in those area's hit by fire and flood to think of two.  

We all give what we can give as we care, and we enjoy each others company.  Tin gave freely of his heart and good nature in a way that he knows how. That's all any man or woman can do.  Owing to the destruction I see in Japan, I'd take all the help I could get!

I find Imagineerings comments way out of line.  JMHO.  Not necessarily shared by the managment of any forum here or any other parallel universe.

Steamer


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## steamer (Mar 13, 2011)

Yesterday, I sat in my truck at a stop light near my home. I had just come from a Bagel store with the "foraged" breakfast for the family as my wife and I hadn't really woke up yet.

As I sat there, my engineers mind was still trying to grasp the amount of energy expended in all those stunning videos of Japans recent natural disaster.

In a "Gadunkin" moment, I imagined a 10 meter high wall of water coming at me from the other side of the intersection....I could envision the cars there being hurtled forward at over 30 MPH by this immense force....what would/could I do?...how could I possibly protect my family and belongings? .Actually there is probably not a damn thing I could do.....what a truly fragile race we are us humans huh?

My heart and prayers go out to those still fighting for survival in Japan.


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## BillC (Mar 13, 2011)

Leave it to an engineer.....Hey steamer, my off the cuff guess is an Exajoule  

BillC

P.S. I give a little prayer often for various reasons - usually in thanks. A couple for the Japanese have been passed along too.


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## steamer (Mar 13, 2011)

BillC  said:
			
		

> Leave it to an engineer.....Hey steamer, my off the cuff guess is an Exajoule
> 
> BillC
> 
> P.S. I give a little prayer often for various reasons - usually in thanks. A couple for the Japanese have been passed along too.





Hi BillC,

Well, take a column of water 10 meters high by 2000 meters wide x 500 miles long,,,,Rho G H !

My guess is your number probably low! :'(  I'm afraid to add it up.......


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## BillC (Mar 13, 2011)

Then how about a yottajoule....! That's probably too high - that's about the inertia of the coriolis effect.

BillC


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## Ken I (Mar 13, 2011)

Like everyone else my heartfelt commiserations to the Japanese and the human tragedy they find themselves in.

Any physisists out there ? - the official position on those pesky reactors always seems to be a step behind the reality and possibly disingenous.
Claiming that the explosion was caused by the building collapse was nonsense and the next day admitted it was Hydrogen - which is what I suspected.

It appears they were using the overhead crane (the operator reported as seriously injured) - why would they be doing that knowing Hydrogen to be present unless in serious trouble.

As far as my limited knowledge goes hydrogen can come from several processes within a reactor - the most worrying being incandescent temperatures - suggesting that the core is not completely shut down and at least part of it is in meltdown.

The fact that 3 of the 4 reactors are now being "emergency cooled" with saltwater suggests none of the reactors were properly scrammed.

To put that in perspective the British Windscale (now Sellafield) reactor that melted in the late 50's is to this day being cooled with seawater - although it is on the cards to start dismantling / decommissioning this year. 

Very worrying.

Comments...

Ken


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## Foozer (Mar 13, 2011)

imagineering  said:
			
		

> I feel that I must take you to task over your "praying".



Its just a word *Pray* "to make a request in a humble manner"

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pray

Regardless of the term, I feel for those people, I wish them well, so I pray to the powers that be, for human nature to contain itself as we enter the aftermath to which peoples nerves do and will give out, causing a normally reasonable person to act unreasonable. 


Robert


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## steamer (Mar 13, 2011)

Ken,

The engineer in me agrees.  They're in deep doo!....I just hope they can contain it and it doesn't go "Chernobyl" on us.   THAT would be REAL bad


I am told that they have a 6" thick stainless containment dome around the reactor for just such cases. Something that Chernobyl didn't have. and that it is still intact.....Thousands of construction workers died while building a concrete cap after the fact in Chernobyl.......I cringe just thinking about it


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## Tin Falcon (Mar 13, 2011)

> I just hope they can contain it and it doesn't go "Chernobyl" on us.   THAT would be REAL bad


There was a bit of commentary on NPR on Friday about worst case scenarios. 
a Chernobyl type incident is not likely it would be more of a Three Mile Island, still not GOOD .but much less disastrous in a highly populated country that has had to deal with massive radiation sickness in the past. 
tin


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## Ken I (Mar 15, 2011)

The situation at the Fukashima plant continues to deteriorate.

They have now evacuated the #1 plant - which is good news - probably means it is completely and safely shutdown and quiescent.

The really bad news is there is a fire in the #2 waste storege facility - this is potentially a greater problem than a reactor meltdown. At least the reactor probably (don't know for sure) has a "core catcher" chamber underneath it - the waste pond almost certainly doesn't and may contain way more fissile material than the reactor.

If they don't get this under control quickly this really could go "Chernobyl" - a prospect I initially dismissed as unlikely.

Ken


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## steamer (Mar 15, 2011)

Hi Ken,

I've been trying to follow along with the reports...most of the ones I read are kinda "washed" of technical content....what sources are you looking at?


Dave


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## Ken I (Mar 15, 2011)

Dave,
    I am "reading between the lines" plus my limited knowledge.

I am regsitered as a radiation worker and have performed "hot" work under a nuclear reactor in the core catcher space - generally used to store "hot" tooling and equipment.

I have found the Wiki site to be more up to date than most of the news sites - of course that may mean like me its more speculative.

Visit  www.world-nuclear-news.org/
but the website is a bit swampped at present.

The UN and IAEA have yet to licence a high level radiation dump anywhere in the world - so they store spent fuel rods (often for later reprocessing) in the cooling ponds - most older reactors have had to increace their ponds to accomodate this waste.
If the Fukiyama plant has a lot of "spent" fuel rods in the pond and have accidentally exposed these rods (perhaps because of the quake - or using the water on the reactor - I don't know) it would seem that an uncontained reaction has started there - this is very bad news indeed.
When CNN offhandedly announced that there was a fire in the storeage pond - my hair stood on end.
Such an offhand comment by reporters with no real knowledge of the import of such a statement.
It could of course just be an ordinary chemical fire but not likely.
If it is nuclear then there is no pressure containment and trying to cool it down is going to release a lot of Hydrogen - it is also going to be radiologically very hot and impossible to get close to.

This also possibly suggests why they were using the crane - to redistribute "stuff" in the pond.

The fact that they have evacuated #1 suggests radiation levels are now at an unsafe level - thus complicating matters. If they have to pull back and (horrors) evacuate the control rooms (most of the containment efforts will be remote from the control room) then it is likely all three reactors and their ponds will follow suit.

That scenario could be worse than Chernobyl.

I hope to hell they get this under control - its like watching a slow motion train wreck.

#1 is a 460MW unit 2,3&4 are 784MW units amongst the largest in the world - Japanese built to a GE design.

If the reactors had been properly scrammed the control rods and safety rods should have gone in - bringing the reaction to a near complete halt - the residual and decay heat does not need that much cooling - the reactor is only supposed to be at 290°C at the concommitant steam pressure.

Even in a worst case scenario the water without circulation should absorb this heat by boiling and venting - undesirable because of radioactive products in the steam - sure you have to restore cooling sooner or later but the amount of heat coming from these reactors suggests that at least portions of the core are still active.

Caveat - I know enough about the processes but nothing about the actual Fukiyama plant design also the information I am basing my speculation on (for that's what it is) could be wrong or simply misreported - so I could be unduly alarmist.

Please do not take anything I have written here as Gospel - I could be wrong - but I am very concerned.

Regards,
      Ken

Update,
      The pond fire has been extinguished and has been attributed to hydrogen (reaction between overheated pond water and zirconium - 100°c - its boiling - should be 40° ) - so its a chemical surface fire - that's a relief. Still leaves some unanswered questions ?? such as how has the hydrogen been stopped ? Did they get it cooled down etc. etc.


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## BillC (Mar 15, 2011)

Was GE line dancing again - right out of the country...?? I wouldn't buy a light bulb from GE - they're done!

BillC


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## Bernd (Mar 15, 2011)

Ken I  said:
			
		

> #1 is a 460MW unit 2,3&4 are 784MW units amongst the largest in the world - Japanese built to a GE design.



I understand the French reactors are different in there design to heat the water than the GE design. Alot safer than the GE design. Is that true?

Bernd


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## Ken I (Mar 15, 2011)

I can't speak for the GE design but the French Framatome designs have several fail safe features including overpressure deployment of control & safety rods triggered and driven purely by overpressure in the reactor - ie it can't be overridden and even if the operators don't / can't do anything it will still shut down (SCRAM).

We have yet to see exactly how this went down but I suspect the earthquake caused loss of all power, the tsunami knocked out the backups. Without power I don't think they could deploy the control or safety rods - falling back on to manual release of the safeties was too late and some deformation now prevented full insertion hence some portions of the reactor are uncontrolled needing massive cooling that was simply not available.

Some pumps ran and then failed - suggesting alignment problems caused by the earthquake etc. - these things are huge (I seem to recall somenthing like a 4MW pump at an overhaul I was involved with.)

The latest in the elliptical Japanese language translations is that a major component at the base of #2 reactor is badly damaged and the core is uncovered.

For that you can perhaps read :- _"Hot molten core material has punched a hole in the bottom of the reactor, we can no longer cool it and all hell is breaking loose."_

Obviously they do not want to unnecessarily alarm the population but I would prefer the truth.


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## Dan Rowe (Mar 15, 2011)

"According to Japans Ministry of International Trade and Industry Ordinance 62, every Japanese nuclear power plant unit installed an automatic seismic trip system (ASTS). "


"In the USA, only two plants in California  Diablo Canyon (DCPP) and San Onofre (SONGS)  have installed the ASTS. There, the two ASTS implemented were not the result of NRC regulation, but were remnants of advisory committee for reactor safety (ACRS) concern about the use of equipment beyond the level of qualification in an active seismic region."

From: http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?sectionCode=76&storyCode=2053108

Chernobyl was a loss of control at FULL power. This is not the case in Japan as I read the events. All this type of engineering is a learning curve the human race has not mastered yet. Things that were not in the design happen and plants are modified where the risk is considered worth the cost as regulated by the various governments in charge of overseeing public safety.

Dan


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## Ken I (Mar 15, 2011)

I see the media consistently reporting 3 Mile Island as the USA's worst nuclear accident.

Most Americans are not aware that the US Army's prototype reactor SL-1 blew up on Jan 3 1961 killing its three operators (40 miles West of Idaho Falls).

No one died at TMI

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SL-1

The stupidly designed reactor had only one control rod and one of the operators tried to unstick it by pulling it out - it went prompt critical from 3MW to 20GW in 4ms and blew up.
One of the operators was nailed to the roof of the containment building by one of the core plugs.
Although they died from physical trauma - the radiation would have killed them anyway.

Ken


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## lordedmond (Mar 15, 2011)

Dan Rowe  said:
			
		

> Chernobyl was a loss of control at FULL power. This is not the case in Japan as I read the events. All this type of engineering is a learning curve the human race has not mastered yet. Things that were not in the design happen and plants are modified where the risk is considered worth the cost as regulated by the various governments in charge of overseeing public safety.
> 
> Dan



partial quote  AFAIK the Chernobyl reactor went from 20% power to 500% in 3 seconds , then the operators turn off the safety interlock by mistake

its about time they developed the fusion reactor than thing would be much safer then thimbleful of sea water would power the UK for a year


Stuart


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## Ken I (Mar 15, 2011)

Ken I  said:
			
		

> The latest in the elliptical Japanese language translations is that a major component at the base of #2 reactor is badly damaged and the core is uncovered.
> 
> For that you can perhaps read :- _"Hot molten core material has punched a hole in the bottom of the reactor, we can no longer cool it and all hell is breaking loose."_


Okay - update - a blast within the reactor (Hydrogen again) has damaged the primary containment vessel - the lower torus coolant ring is fractured.
This makes pressurisation impossible - it also appears to even be preventing getting a column of water to cover the core.

I presume they are going to attempt to repair the fracture - some poor SOB is going to have to weld that - if so my best wishes to that brave soul(s) - this may not even be possible as it is possibly too "hot".

So I presume they will now fill the core catcher volume with boreated water (the idea to catch the meltdown as it dribbles throught the floor of the primary containment - last line of defence which should work but is going to be very messy.

They have requested US military assistance to drop water ?? I can only presume into the storage pond (the roof is gone but that's the only water drop target I can think of).

It looks like they are starting to get #3 & #4 under control but the situation at #2 is still very very serious.

Good luck guys.

Ken


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## steamer (Mar 15, 2011)

Thanks for the updates Ken..keep them coming....I appreciate someone in the "know"....I also bookmarked the site you posted....

Man what a mess...

I wonder how many of the 50 operators that are still in there are going to make it out.....

Shades of Chernobyl......all over again.


Dave


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## BillC (Mar 15, 2011)

Even looking at these these photos, it's hard to conceive.....


http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm


BillC


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## steamer (Mar 15, 2011)

1 minute, cars as far as you can see...the next...GONE....

speachless...

Dave


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## Ken I (Mar 16, 2011)

Once again I take my hat off to those brave souls trying to contain the disaster at the Fukushima plant.

The situation is very fluid and one has no option but to read between the lines.

The Japanese are habitually reticent with bad news and problems, as a supplier of Japanese equipment I have to live with this continually.

The fire at #4 was in the spent fuel rods in the coolant pond and either was not suppressed the first time or has flared up again - almost certainly as a result of lowered liquid levels - hence the call for assistance to water bomb this target - since called off.
It is completely unclear as to whether this is chemical (Hydrogen) or nuclear - ie the spent fuel rods in the pond are delivering sufficient decay heat and possibly interacting with each other - there is a real risk of meltdown in the pond - this is a scenario that I don't think has been seriously considered before.

The "crack" in the roof of #4 seems curious - the roof's gone - so I am guessing this is a misinterpretation of a crack in the lid of the containment vessel (could of course be wrong) - but this seems to fit with the venting going on there.

The venting is of course laced with radioactive substances - such as Iodine and Caesium. Iodine lodges preferentially in the Tyroid gland - taking Iodine tablets saturates the gland thus preventiing uptake of the radioactive species. Iodine tablets do not "immunise" you to radiation.

So it now appears the #2 & #4 primary containment vessels are compromised and cannot be pressurised plus the venting is uncontrolled and poses the risk of further Hydrogen explosions.

A leak in the lid (#4) is less problematic than a leak in the torus (#2) which will inhibit or prevent covering the core with water.

Being unable to properly fill or pressurise these vessels vastly increaces the risk of further internal Hydrogen explosions which might damage the containment further.

When the 50 personell were pulled out because of a spike in radiation levels my first thought was they had given up and the situation was hopeless - but no they've gone back in - this probably means they felt confident enough to leave whatever systems they had running to continue unattended for a while - this is probably a good indicator.

Quite frankly I am amazed that this has gone on for so long without getting completely away from them and can only wonder at the bravery and committment of those tackling the problems.

Fortunately the weather has been playing along nicely blowing the bulk of the leakage out over the Pacific - most of it will settle into the sea - posing little risk to marine life - water is as good a radiation shield as Lead (not many people know that) - some increaced level of radiation is bound to be observed in fish etc. as some will undoubtedly find its way into the food chain - but I would expect this to be very little at the current leak rates.

Fears of radiation reaching Washington are perhaps simply alarmist - sure I think you can expect to see some increace but nothing of significance - although it will probably be reported as something like 10 times more than normal (10 times very little is still very little).

Ken


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## Dan Rowe (Mar 16, 2011)

Ken I  said:
			
		

> Once again I take my hat off to those brave souls trying to contain the disaster at the Fukushima plant.
> 
> water is as good a radiation shield as Lead (not many people know that) -



I agree that the guys facing this situation are true heroes. 

The actual facts about the event will only be totally known after the fact when a through engineering analysis can be made and steps taken to reduce the risk in other plants.

Water is not nearly as effective at radiation shielding as lead. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_protection

Water is cheep and readily available so it is used for that reason.

Dan


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## Ken I (Mar 16, 2011)

Dan,
   Thanks for that reference and shielding table - salutory lesson in the use of "throwaway" remarks.

It depends on the radiation - energetic neutrons for instance pass through lead "easier" than water.

Water makes an excellect shield / moderator for a reactor where the primary radiation is neutrons but much less so for other forms of radiation.

My point was that radioactive materials dropping into the sea (whilst of grave concern) are environmentally a much lower concern than on dry land.

As always - "it all depends....."

Ken


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## Mainer (Mar 16, 2011)

Incredible close-up video from Japanese TV of the tsunami coming through a town. The water just keeps getting deeper.

[ame]http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1605260179420&comments[/ame]


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## Ken I (Mar 16, 2011)

The fire in the #4 cooling pond now seems beyond salvation. It was clearly containing at least the most recently removed spent fuel rods and probably much more.
Attempts to drop water by helicopter were called off on account of it being too radiologically hot for the helicopters - this also precludes any chance of going in on the ground - using a police water cannon ? - you may as well spit at it.

I am now begining to supect the explosions at 1,3 4 were pond related issues. The explosions that blew off the outer upper casement were unlikely to have come from deliberate or pressure venting which would have been discharged outside (although it might have overwhelmed the "filters" and discharged inside the building).

All four reactors are now unpressurised and at least two have the cores partially exposed and the status of the others is not really known.

Even units #5 & #6 are described as having "cooling problems".

This is getting indescribably bad, this is way worse than Three Mile Island and has the potential to even surpass Chernobyl.

There is a very real risk of this dominoing from 4 to 1 and the whole lot going.

I suspect they are very close to having to pull out and simply let it "burn".

Hope the weather holds.

_"I would like to leave you on a positive note - but I can't - could you use two negatives" _- Woody Allen


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## Lakc (Mar 16, 2011)

Ken I  said:
			
		

> The fire in the #4 cooling pond now seems beyond salvation. It was clearly containing at least the most recently removed spent fuel rods and probably much more.


I was trying to follow this closer today. What happens to all this material left uncovered? Does it simply increase in heat due to its mutual proximity until it becomes a molten mass? Brief criticality?


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## Ken I (Mar 16, 2011)

Lakc,
    The spent fuel rods still contain a lot of active Uranium but a significant amount of nasty fission products as well which act as Neutron inhibitors - as the pile gets older the control rods have to be withdrawn further and further - at some point you replace - which is what just happened at #4.

These rods are still capable of reacting and melting down so yes it can turn into a molten blob - that might burn through the bottom of the pond and become an unwelcome visitor to the outer containment vessel.
http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Radioactive_Waste_Management/Spent_Nuclear_Fuel

The problem is the amount of potential energy in these things - only about 30% of the Uranium is used in about 18 months - so theoretically there is enough energy there equivalent to 3 years output of 738MW (an overly simplistic calculation to be sure - but its not just going to cool down and stop like a blob of hot metal in water - and that's presuming there is only one set of spent fuel rods in the storeage - there may well be more).

As I mentioned in an earlier post the old British Windscale reactor has been cooled by seawater since 1957 (I think) and its now only approaching a condition where it can be dismantled.

Chernobyl still has a red hot core 25 years on.

If this "stuff" melts there is no way to deal with it other to entomb it and keep it cool.

If the reactor core melts it will eventually dribble into the "core catcher" void benath which can be filled with boric acid - if it comes through as a dribble (not a slug) then is it hoped this will cool it enough and hopefully sepparate it enough to stop the reaction.

Its starting to sound more Wiley Coyote the more I think about it - but WTH.

Hope it doesn't come to that.

Ken


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## ksouers (Mar 16, 2011)

Ken I  said:
			
		

> All four reactors are now unpressurised and at least two have the cores partially exposed and the status of the others is not really known.
> 
> Even units #5 & #6 are described as having "cooling problems".
> 
> This is getting indescribably bad, this is way worse than Three Mile Island and has the potential to even surpass Chernobyl.



Ken, I'm afraid that after all the data are analyzed they'll find that is has already surpassed Chernobyl. 

It sounds as if they've already had at least one excursion. I'm certainly no expert on the subject, but I suspect the only way to get things under control is to disassemble the cores, or they disassemble themselves.


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## Ken I (Mar 16, 2011)

Ksouers,
      You may well be right !

I don't think dismantling is even a remote possibility even by an army of kamikazee technicians. (No slur intended but its a suicide mission.)

I don't know of anyone anywhere trying to take the lid off a "hot" reactor. On top of that the overhead crane has been destroyed in three of the 4 reactors.

They are pretty much out of options other than pumping in truely massive volumes of seawater - literaly filling the entire "box" with water and even that might not do it.

I'll be seriously impressed if they get a lid on this but that gets less likely with each passing minute.

Ken


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## steamer (Mar 16, 2011)

I don't think dismantling is even a remote possibility even by an army of kamikazee technicians. (No slur intended but its a suicide mission.)


It was described thus.

""I don't know any other way to say it, but this is like suicide fighters in a war," said Keiichi Nakagawa, associate professor of the Department of Radiology at the University of Tokyo Hospital. "

Here is the source.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110316/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake


Many workers died at Chernoybl after the explosion, putting up the containment building......

Russian or Japanese....they're still brave...thats for damn sure.....what an horrible way to die.

As an engineer, this whole event just breaks my heart. I haven't felt this bad since the Challenger disaster.

I was taking my udergrad physics when Chernobyl went up. My prof was a scientist at Los Alamos during the 50's. He had a grad student who was a Russion Nuke Engineer. I remember the lecture this guy gave about the most likely ( at the time) cause and what was going on.  Suicide work on the containment was mentioned as, in all probability, a requirement.

Dave


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## Lakc (Mar 16, 2011)

Thinking outside the box here, but bomb the reactor and waste pool? Would explosive disassembly be the lesser evil?


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## steamer (Mar 16, 2011)

Lakc  said:
			
		

> Thinking outside the box here, but bomb the reactor? Would explosive disassembly be the lesser evil?





I would say very uncontrolled at best...most likely just flinging it around.....

Dave


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## Lakc (Mar 16, 2011)

steamer  said:
			
		

> I would say very uncontrolled at best...most likely just flinging it around.....
> 
> Dave



Yes, but isnt the danger its proximity to itself?

I see the BBC quotes someone in JNRC mentioning re-criticality, surely that gamma release would be worse?


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## steamer (Mar 16, 2011)

ahhh see your point..

Maybe...but I lack the expertize here to make a call...but the "hair on the back" meter is pegged at the "don't do it " mark.

Besides think of the radioactive mess....not that its real good right now! :-[

this does truly (&#38;#$&*^@ !


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## Ken I (Mar 17, 2011)

I've had the same thought myself but simply not knowledgeable enough to make that call.
The SL-1 blew so violently it stopped the reaction - so the idea is not as nuts as it sounds - but I would guess the size of this thing precludes this idea - and besides can you see any politician giving the green light ?

Dave, I don't know why but like you I feel a personal sense of tragedy as an engineer.

Those spent fuel rods are leathally radioactive - quoting from the Wiki source I listed earlier - a spent fuel rod after 10 years in storage will emit 20000 Rems per hour at 1m - an exposure of 5000 Rems (15 mins) gaurentees immediate incapacitation and death within a week.

We have a pond full of these things on fire and potentially going into meltdown.

The are over 160000 of these things in storage in the US.

The risks of this stuff has been known for years but we have failed do anything about it.

One thing is for sure the analysis of future atomic energy is going to require addressing this issue.

We have solutions - turn the waste into metal oxide glass encased within another glass outer - like a hockey puck - waste Plutonium for reprocessing is often processed this way for transport (those heavy "flasks").

We can drop these in a geologically active subduction zone - say the Marianas trench - where it will be slowly ground back into the earth's mantle over millions of years.
Its too deep to be got at by terrorists and would be so difficult to recover and process you might as well start from scratch.

From an engineering point of view this makes perfect sense - but you can clearly imagine the ecological opposition.

Ken


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## steamer (Mar 18, 2011)

The Japanese officials are talking about burying it now.  

Dave


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## Ken I (Mar 18, 2011)

Dave,
    They really don't have any other option. The SL1 reactor was buried with 60' of earth on top of it - and a tombstone what's more.

It looks like they are going to be able to restart the main pumps today (or at least one of them) this should bring the situation under control.

I'm guessing the plant is a complete write off and will have to be "buried". The clean up is going to take years - that's assuming clean up is possible - since the plant has not gone into complete meltdown that would appear likely.

Its certainly going to pose some challenging engineering problems.

Prognosis at this stage is several times worse than TMI but still nothing like Chernobyl.


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## lordedmond (Mar 19, 2011)

BigOnSteam

I believe that the cooling pumps are similar size to boiler feed pumps and the start at 4Mw they are huge , We used v16 Cat standby gennys at work they were 11 tons but only 750 kw

for size a 1.5mw ID fan motor is the size of a house and from past experience it would need at least a 6Mw prime mover to get it going

In local coal fired power stations I believe they need something like 50Mw just to run the ancillaries they normally use gas turbines but they would not stand a earth quake



Stuart


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## Ken I (Mar 19, 2011)

Pat J, Stewart, Bigonsteam - all correct this stuff is huge and not a simple matter - add to that the "colatteral" damage done by explosions and falling masonry to control and instrumentation lines - its a mess - the playbook goes out the window.

As one expert said on CNN you need a disciplined team to run a reactor - you need a completely different team of "creative" specialists to deal with a disaster.

They are now reporting #1, #2 & #3 as under control - I'm guessing #4 with its fresh fuel load and (possibly) cracked lid is proving a bit more problematic.

I presume they have therefore got at least one pump running and by various Heath Robinson arrangements are getting these reactors and waste fuel ponds cooled down.

If they can get the reactor fully cooled (presuming no melted portion is trying to run-away on its own) then these stop being a problem.
The spent fuel ponds are the problem - keeping them cool is priority No.1.

They can't simply bury the plant they must first remove the fuel - to do that they must first decontaminate - to do that they must first remove the spent fuel (to where ? who knows) - to do that they must first supress the radiation and remove the damaged upper works and masonry. (Obviously this is stated in the reverse order that they must tackle the problem - but that's the logic of the situation).

This is going to take months but I believe the worst is behind us but the situation is going to remain perilous for some weeks.

Nuclear energy is going to be considerably set back by this but I doubt that we can simply not use it. We need to use the modern fail-safe - natuarally cooled reactor designs with sufficient back up "muscle" at remote loactions to tackle such disasters. Furthermore we need to formulate a disposal strategy - without which we should not continue as is.

Ken


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